Saturday, December 11, 2010

(MnG, REUTERS) FirstRand to run Zambia's Finance Bank

FirstRand to run Zambia's Finance Bank
CHRIS MFULA
LUSAKA, ZAMBIA
Dec 11 2010 15:28

Zambia's central bank has appointed South Africa's FirstRand to run a key commercial bank facing collapse due to poor management, a central bank spokesperson said on Saturday.

Kanguya Mayondi said the central bank took over the operations of Zambia's Finance Bank on Friday because its viability was threatened by bad practices by shareholders, directors and management.

"In order to ensure a smooth possession period, the central bank has appointed its agents, seconded staff from FirstRand group to manage the operations of Finance Bank," Mayondi said.

"This measure was necessary in order to protect the interests of depositors and other creditors of the bank, and ensure the stability of the banking sector in Zambia."

FirstRand is South Africa's second-largest bank.

Mayondi said FirstRand staff will be deployed across all branches of Finance Bank, one of the largest banks by network in Zambia.

The central bank would ensure that Finance Bank continued to run normally and had appointed a new interim chief executive officer, Mayondi said. -- Reuters

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(ZIMPAPERS) WikiLeaks exposes Zanu-PF official

WikiLeaks exposes Zanu-PF official
Friday, 10 December 2010 21:49
Hon. Simba Mudarikwa

A ZANU-PF official has been exposed as giving information against President Muga-be and the party, justifying illegal economic sanctions and attacking the land reform programme during secret meetings with Western diplomats, a US classified cable released by WikiLeaks website has revealed.

The official also blamed the land reform programme for national food insecurity.
There are about 2900 more cables yet to be released by the whistle-blowing website on Zimbabwe and speculation abounds that more officials will be unmasked.

Zanu-PF national chairman, Cde Simon Khaya Moyo, yesterday said the party took the matter seriously and would discuss the issue during the Politburo meeting on Monday.
"The matter is of serious concern to the party and we are going to discuss it during our Monday Politburo meeting . . . The Politburo will definitely have interest in it," he said.

A February 10, 2010 cable titled "Observations on the Political Landscape and US- Zimbabwe relations," sent to Washington by American Ambassador to Zimbabwe Charles Ray, reveals details of a meeting with a Zanu-PF official identified as Mudarikwa.

Some reports posted on the Internet are implicating Uzumba House of Assembly Member Cde Simba Mudarikwa. However, Cde Mudarikwa yesterday dismissed the reports as baseless, arguing those implicating him wanted to dent his political image ahead of elections.

"I do not hold trademark to the name Mudarikwa and I am not a senior person in Zanu-PF. I am just a provincial member. By the time this was written in February, I was just a provincial secretary for transport. There are so many Mudarikwas in the party and all of them are at provincial level . . . We have been in Zanu-PF and we will remain Zanu-PF. For 27 years, I have been State Master of Ceremonies . . . How could I have done that? I do not know that Charles Ray and I am sure he does not know me as well," he said.

Cde Mudarikwa said he did not have children and any interests in America.
However, Mr Ray said he had a lengthy discussion on various topics on Zimbabwe including the state of Zanu-PF, the indigenisation programme and the anticipated general elections with the Zanu-PF official.

The official told Ambassador Ray that Zanu-PF was seriously divided.

"It was like a stick of TNT, susceptible to ignition and disintegration. Zanu-PF was holding together because of the threat of MDC-T and foreign pressure. He likened Zanu-PF to a troop of baboons incessantly fighting among themselves, but coming together to face external threat," wrote Ambassador Ray.

Commenting o the state of Zanu-PF, Ambassador Ray quoted the Zanu-PF official as saying the party was not going to have leadership renewal until President Mugabe and other hardliners were out of the picture.

"New leadership was essential and would emerge as soon as some of the old timers, including (President) Robert Mugabe, left the scene."

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(NEWZIMBABWE) Tsvangirai must resign: Zanu PF

Tsvangirai must resign: Zanu PF
by
11/12/2010 00:00:00

Zanu PF officials have demanded that Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai resigns from Government or face prosecution for possible treason following allegations made in the leaked communications from the United States’ Harare embassy.

Some of the information leaked by Wikileaks suggests that the MDC-T leader privately urged Western countries to maintain sanctions against Zimbabwe while publicly appearing to back their removal. Zanu PF blames the sanctions for the country’s economic troubles.

"There are only two things that could happen in any civilised democracy, for him to resign not just from Government but public life altogether. He must also be prosecuted for a litany of treasonous acts against the State.

"The only questions about those two things is not whether they should happen but when they are going to happen," Tsholotsho North legislator and former information minister, Professor Jonathan Moyo.

Moyo said it was “shocking” that Tsvangirai continued to campaign for the retention of sanctions and for use of unlawful means to change a Government of which he was a senior official.

"As early as 2000 he was actively asking the US to bring troops to Zimbabwe to effect a coup," he said.

Gabriel Chaibva, a former MDC-M official who has since defected to Zanu PF said it was treasonous for Tsvangirai and his party “to craft ZDERA” and continue to call for the retention of sanctions against Zimbabwe.

"This is treasonous and Tsvangirai should be held accountable for his actions. The only sensible thing for him to do now is to resign because more evidence is coming from WikiLeaks.

“(Alternatively), those in the MDC-T must push him out because he is a traitor and has become a liability to the people of Zimbabwe. The quicker he goes, the better," Chaibva said.

He said the country could also call elections in order to “get rid Tsvangirai and his party”.

"There has never been a more compelling reason for elections than there is to get rid of this political party. More importantly when we go for elections, the people of Zimbabwe now know that this man (Tsvangirai) all along has been working to advance the US and British interests in Zimbabwe.

"He never worked for the people of Zimbabwe and this explains why he has been making senseless demands on the so-called outstanding issues. It has been about usurping powers through the back door. Zimbabweans must punish him at the polls for who wants to associate with an American puppet," added Chaibva.

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(NEWZIMBABWE) Zanu-PF to smoke out dissenting MP

Zanu-PF to smoke out dissenting MP
by Staff Reporter
11/12/2010 00:00:00

STUNG by criticism from one of its own MPs who liked the party to a passé of fratricidal baboons and blasted many of its flagship policies, the Zanu PF hierarchy is moving to smoke-out the dissenting legislator.

The latest diplomatic cables released by whistle-blowing website Wikileaks indicate that a Zanu PF member of parliament held a meeting with United States ambassador Charles Ray where he said the party was in need of new leadership.

The name of the official was redacted from the cables to protect his identity. The official said party chairman, Simon Khaya Moyo and Vice President Joyce Mujuru were possibilities although Mujuru’s “fear of Mugabe was affecting her ability to lead”.

Moyo told state media the party would discuss the issue at its Monday meeting.

"The matter is of serious concern to the party and we are going to discuss it during our Monday Politburo meeting . . . The Politburo will definitely have interest in it," he quoted as saying.

The legislator blasted Zanu PF's indegenisation policies under-which foreign-owned companies are required by law to localise at least 51 percent of their shareholding.

“The government's indigenisation program benefitted nobody accept (sic) those who were already wealthy. It did nothing for his constituents, who couldn't afford to buy into companies and were living hand-to-mouth,” Ambassador Ray said in his report of the meeting.

More tellingly, the MP contradicted Zanu PF’s oft-stated argument that sanctions were responsible for the country’s near-economic collapse over the last decade.

“The economy was already on a downhill trajectory because of misguided economic policies and the disastrous land reform policy. But the passage of ZDERA was like slashing an already deflating tire,” the MP said.

[That is partially true. The economy was badly hit by the Structural Adjustment Program (ESAP), which saw the annihilation of social services and universal education as a founding principle, but that started not in 2000 with landreform, but from 1991 to 1996. If you look at the Zimbabwe Dollar vs the US dollar, there was as slow decline. However, a slow decline turned into hyperinflation in 2002, after ZDERA put a credit freeze on the government in December 2001. All this data is available on my page here. - MrK]


He urged the US to maintain sanctions against individual Zanu PF officials but reconsider those targeting state-owned enterprises.

“Sanctions on individuals should remain if justified by the behavior of these individuals. Sanctions on parastatals that were contributing or could contribute to the economy should be lifted,” the official told Ray.

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(NEWZIMBABWE) MDC-T sex scandal spills into courts

MDC-T sex scandal spills into courts
by Staff Reporter
11/12/2010 00:00:00

AN MDC-T employee implicated in a sex scandal with a senior party official has sought a peace order against the man who claimed to be her husband. A civil court in Harare granted a protection order sought by Sandra Mutsimba against her husband and father of her one-year old child, Simbarashe Mawisire.

The couple has been at each other’s throat since Mawisire discovered that his wife was having an affair with MDC-T director general Toendepi Shonhe. The MDC-T has since suspended both Shonhe and Mutsimba on charges of improper conduct.

Mawisire allegedly caught the pair with their pants down in a room they had booked at a Bulawayo Lodge last month.

However, Mutsimba – who denies being married to Mawisire -- dragged the father of her child to court claiming he was threatening, stalking and assaulting her.

Mutsimba sought a peace order against her “husband” but Harare magistrate Ms Olivia Mariga granted a reciprocal protection order directing both parties to keep peace with each other.

The Magistrate however, refused to grant a request by Mutsimba that Mawisire should be barred from visiting the MDC-T’s Harvest House ruling the premises were a public place.

Meanwhile, Mutsimba insisted she was not married to Mawisire adding that they only had a child together.

“I wish to categorically state that the respondent and I were never married. We only had a child together.

“Ever since I broke off the relationship, respondent has been harassing, stalking me and sending text messages to me.

She told the court that they only had an affair after Mawisire had lied to her that he was single and had separated from his wife.

“I believed him and commenced a relationship with him. Our relationship resulted in the birth of a child, born in July 2009. Unbeknown to me during this period, respondent and his wife were still together.

“Later I discovered that contrary to what respondent was telling me, he was in fact still seeing his wife and that they had a third child who was born around the same time as my son.

“I confronted the respondent about this affair. Our relationship soured as a result of this which culminated in me breaking off the relationship with him and moving on,” Mutsimba said in her affidavit.

However, Mawisire insisted the two were customarily married adding his ‘wife’ was making false allegations because he had discovered their affair.

“Plaintiff and I were customarily married and all the formalities for a customary marriage were performed.

“I never harassed, stalked her or sent her unsavory messages. In fact, it is the plaintiff who is making up unwarranted allegations against me ever since I discovered her illicit affair with Toendepi Shonhe.

“I never asked her to move back with me. There was no way I was going to expose myself to risk of HIV and Aids by moving back with someone of such immoral tendencies,” Mawisire said.


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(CNN) Chinese inflation spikes on food costs

Chinese inflation spikes on food costs
By Catherine Tymkiw, producerDecember 10, 2010: 10:48 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Higher food prices continue to be the main driver of inflation in China, raising the likelihood of an imminent interest rate hike as the country tries to reel in its red-hot economy.

Consumer prices rose 5.1% for the 12 months ended Nov. 30, according to government data released early Saturday in China. That comes on the heels of a 4.4% jump in October. And once again, a surge in food costs is the culprit. Food prices rose 11.7% during the period. Excluding food prices, China's CPI edged up only 1.9%.

Compare that with the United States, where the CPI has been sluggish for months. In October, the U.S. CPI increased a modest 1.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding the volatility of food prices, the U.S. CPI rose 0.6%.

The U.S. trade balance narrowed to a more-than-expected $38.7 billion, bringing the U.S. trade deficit to a 9-month low.

China tries to stave off inflation
But China is a different story.

China said its trade surplus narrowed to $22.9 billion in November -- a 16% decrease over October's $27.2 billion surplus. China's exports jumped 34.9%, while the country's imports rose 37.7%.

Fears of runaway inflation have led to rising speculation that the People's Bank of China will move to raise interest rates as early as this weekend.


0:00 /6:50The myth of China's building boom
Just one week ago, China said it would be more "prudent" about its monetary policy in 2011. And on Friday, the People's Bank of China raised the reserve requirement ratio for its banks by a half-percentage point for the third time in a month.

Month by month: CPI rose 1.1% in November, on a monthly basis. The increase was largely due to higher food prices. Meanwhile, core CPI was up a more modest 0.6%.

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Friday, December 10, 2010

(LUSAKATIMES) BOZ takes over Finance Bank, fires directors

BOZ takes over Finance Bank, fires directors
By LusakaTimes
Friday, December 10, 2010, 18:59

Bank of Zambia (BoZ) has taken over operations of embattled Finance Bank Zambia limited. The Central Banks says this is pursuant to the Bankers Act 81. (1) (c) (i) and (ii) of the laws of Zambia meant to protect the institution from further damage created by its shareholders, directors and senior managers.

BoZ says the, directors and shareholders of the bank had failed to comply with the law on good governance and management practices. BoZ says if it did not move in to take control of the institution the bank’s liabilities would have affected other stakeholders in the financial sector.

The Central Bank said it would ensure stability in the banking sector and that operations at Finance Bank would continue to run smoothly without disruptions.

And BoZ has since appointed Leonard Hanze as acting chief executive officer with immediate effect.

This follows the removal of the chief executive officer, managing director, executive director Special Projects, executive director Finance and credits and executive director Corporate Banking and Marketing.

Others relieved of their duties include executive director Treasury and International Banking, Executive director Retail Banking and Operations and Financial Consultant.

Central Bank governor Caleb Fundanga has assured the staff and customers at Finance Bank that the bank would be fully operational on Monday December 13, 2010.

Yesterday BoZ Head of Public Relations Kanguya Mayondi dispelled reports that government through the Central Bank was intending to take over Finance Bank and Nationalise it.

Mr Mayondi said in a statement that it was not the business of BoZ to nationalize banks, stressing that the Bank has no intention of nationalizing any bank in Zambia.

Mr Mayondi said the Bank’s business is to regulate and supervise banks and other financial service providers as outlined in the Banking and Financial Services act Cap 387 of the laws of Zambia


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(WIKILEAKS) TSVANGIRAI ASKS THE WEST FOR HELP ON CHANGING THE STATUS QUO

COMMENT - Gee, Ambassador Ray, what are 'non-personal sanctions'? I take it this is the cowardly way of saying ECONOMIC SANCTIONS. The ones that destroyed the Zimbabwean currency in 2002, after being introduced in December 21st 2001.

Thursday, 24 December 2009, 08:26
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001004
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CARSON, DAS PAGE, AND AF/S
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN
EO 12958 DECL: 12/24/2019
TAGS PREL, PGOV, PHUM, ASEC, ZI
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI ASKS THE WEST FOR HELP ON CHANGING THE
STATUS QUO
REF: HARARE 987
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D

¶1. (SBU) This cable includes an ACTION REQUEST, please see paragraph 8.

¶2. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai said that while there was tremendous progress in 2009 as compared to 2008, Zimbabwe and its coalition government still faces challenges. Reforms must be implemented quickly, and there has been some progress, though none that affects the ZANU-PF power structure. Implementation of the Global Political Agreement (GPA) has been slow and Mugabe has been using delay to maintain control. In 2010 there must be some progress to show the people, but it will require actions by all parties, including the Western powers, to change the status quo. He expects the recently announced commissions to be installed in early 2010, and is satisfied with their makeup. ZANU-PF has implemented a strategy of reciprocity in the negotiations, using Western sanctions as a cudgel against MDC. He would like to see some quiet moves, provided there are acceptable benchmarks, to ‘give’ some modest reward for modest progress.

¶3. (C) Ambassadors of the U.S., UK, French, and the Netherlands, and a representative of the EU were called to PM Tsvangirai’s residence at 0730 on December 24 for an update briefing on the current discussions among the principals in the coalition government and a request from him for some flexibility on the part of the West on the issue of sanctions. He said that there has been tremendous progress in restoring confidence of the people in government in 2009 as compared to 2008. The people generally endorse the government, but the future holds both opportunities and challenges. The principal challenge is how to quickly embark on reforms. There has been a little progress on that front, but not what was expected. Implementation of the GPA has been too slow, and he is not satisfied with it. ZANU-PF has been using delay on the GPA to maintain control. The negotiators have held 11 meetings up until the end of the year. On the issues of media, land, and corruption, there has been some progress, but none of it touches on the power structure. On the three stickiest issues, Gono, Tomana, and Bennett, there has been no progress. He is hopeful, however, that if some progress can be made on other issues, these too will be settled.

¶4. (C) ZANU-PF seems to have introduced a new tactic in its agenda - reciprocity. What this means, he said, is that Mugabe is asking, “What’s in this for us?” If MDC gets governorships, Mugabe asks, why can’t the sanctions against ZANU-PF be lifted? Tsvangirai said that it seems that Mugabe plans to use the governors as a trade-off against sanctions. He said he has repeatedly told Mugabe that MDC has no control over sanctions.

But, he added, lack of any flexibility on the issue of sanctions poses a problem for him and his party. In this he assured us that Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Q In this he assured us that Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara is in full agreement with him. He also acknowledged that his public statements calling for easing of sanctions versus his private conversations saying they must be kept in place have caused problems.

¶5. (C) Tsvangirai said the challenges for 2010 are:

- Get the reforms moving on the constitutional process.
- Open media space, national healing, and anti-corruption.
- Prepare for elections in 2011.
- Move from economic stability to growth.
- Deal with human rights violations.

He said the coalition government must expedite action in all these areas because, not only are Western governments watching, but the people of Zimbabwe will expect improvement. He said Security Sector Reform will take center stage in

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2010, using a multilateral approach involving all parties here and SADC. In early 2010, Tsvangirai and Mutambara will take the diplomatic lead on the sanctions issue. The question before us, Tsvangirai said, is how to start moving on rewarding progress without giving the impression we are rewarding lack of progress or bad behavior. We need to establish acceptable benchmarks of progress, and determine what each involved party needs to do to change the status quo. If necessary, he said, he and Mutambara can quietly meet with Western leadership to develop a plan on the issue of sanctions. He said that he and Mutambara have decided to take this issue out of the hands of the negotiators and handle it personally. What is needed is some kind of concrete roadmap that all can agree on, linking easing of sanctions with identifiable and quantifiable progress.

¶6. (C) Tsvangirai wants to go to Mugabe after the negotiators deliver their final report on January 15, 2010, with some idea of what the Western position is on sanctions. He said that in order to change the status quo, all parties might have to take some risks, because maintaining the status quo only guarantees continued stalemate in the reform process. Economic recovery and democratic reform are the essential requirements in Zimbabwe right now. The 2011 elections are a critical goal as well. Winning the election, he said, is not the problem, but a peaceful transfer of power is. The recently announced commissions will be installed early in 2010, he said, and he is satisfied with their makeup. The heads of the Media and Electoral Commissions are honest men who he believes will put the interests of the country first. His goal is to have the Electoral Commission hire its own staff and be independent. The key is to wrest control from the Securocrats.

¶7. (C) On the subject of Mugabe himself, Tsvangirai said that in his recent meetings, though Mugabe seems mentally acute, he appears old and very tired. He comes to many meetings unbriefed and unaware of the content. It appears that he is being managed by hardliners. Tsvangirai said his goal now is to find a way to ‘manage’ Mugabe himself. One way, perhaps, would be to give him something to give his hardliners. Precisely what that something is, he said, is something he is still wrestling with.

¶8. (C) COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST. We are skeptical of Mugabe’s motives, and worried a bit at what appears to be naivete on Tsvangirai’s part. However, we believe that in one area he is correct: changing the status quo here will require some risk taking on everyone’s part. As we’ve previously discussed (reftel), we think it might be in USG interests to consider some form of incremental easing of non-personal sanctions, provided we see actual implementation of some of these reforms. Post would appreciate Washington’s view on what would be acceptable benchmarks, and possible moves on our part. We also request guidance on what to tell Qmoves on our part. We also request guidance on what to tell Tsvangirai at our next meeting, which is expected early in the New Year. END COMMENT AND ACTION REQUEST.
RAY

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(WIKILEAKS) AMBASSADOR RAY’S VISIT WITH GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO ZIM

Wednesday, 02 December 2009, 14:01
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000930
SIPDIS
AF/S FOR BRIAN WALCH
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR MICHELLE GAVIN
EO 12958 DECL: 12/02/2019
TAGS PREL, PGOV, ZI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR RAY’S VISIT WITH GERMAN AMBASSADOR TO ZIM
Classified By: AMBASSADOR CHARLES A. RAY FOR REASONS 1.4 B,D

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: There is a strong need in Zimbabwe for security sector reform, as without it, none of the efforts at political reform can be assured. After Robert Mugabe leaves the scene (either through death or retirement) ZANU-PF as a political force in Zimbabwe will be irrelevant, although some of the party members are likely to continue to be involved in the country’s politics. We need to start now to identify the next generation of the country’s leadership and begin the process of influencing them. According to an MDC member of Parliament, there are three ZANU-PF factions in government and Parliament; a few mostly younger people who want to work with MDC and move the country forward, a large percentage (including Mugabe) who want to hang on to power for as long as they can, and a small number of extreme hardliners (Emmerson Mnangagwa among them) who for ideological or personal reasons want the coalition government to fail regardless of the consequences to the nation. South Africa, at the end of the day, is not likely to be as helpful as we would like in improving the situation here, and we need to look at how to involve the PRC as the Chinese have Mugabe’s ear. China is likely to be agreeable to efforts to improve economic stability and just might be helpful in achieving success in security sector reform. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) I met Dr. Albrecht Conze, German Ambassador to Zimbabwe, at his embassy on December 1, 2009. Unlike most of the other EU ambassadors who waited for me to ask them questions, Conze immediately began probing for the U.S. position on a number of issues, most notably how to engage with the government in the medium term, and our views on security sector reform. He stressed that the need for success in dealing with the security chiefs cannot be underestimated. Without reform in this sector, our efforts at political and economic reform risk failure. Conze agreed with me that we need to do more to identify the next generation of leadership in Zimbabwe and start influencing them now. He is concerned about the obsessive focus on Mugabe, who is admittedly part of the problem, but is also essential to its solution. Should he suddenly die, or otherwise be moved from office, it could lead to chaos and violence as competing groups vied for control. Conze believes that ZANU-PF in a post-Mugabe world will be irrelevant and will not exist in its current form, although some ZANU-PF members are likely to continue to be involved in Zimbabwe’s politics.

¶3. (C) Conze said that in conversations with MDC-M politician David Coltart, he was told that in Parliament and government there are three ZANU-PF factions. A small number of mostly younger ZANU-PF members want to cooperate with the MDC to move the country out of the rut it is in. The vast majority (including Mugabe himself) are in a second group that is willing to make only grudging concessions but is primarily interested in hanging on to their positions as long as they can. A smaller, third faction (which includes Defense Minister Mnangagwa) of extreme hardliners work hard to cause the coalition government to fail without any regard to the impact this would have on the country. Some of them are motivated by revolutionary (Marxist) fervor, some by personal grudges and animosities, and some are, in Conze’s words, just evil and greedy. Despite his advanced age, Mugabe is the spider sitting at the center of this web and has full control over all the factions. Without him, many of them would be nothing and would have nothing. Even most in the MDC recognize that he is key to the future of politics here.

¶4. (C) The Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) plays a significant role in Zimbabwe and the Western nations need to involve them more in cooperative activities wherever possible. Conze agreed with me that while they are not likely to want to participate in pro-democracy programs, economic stability is clearly in their interests. He considered an invitation to the PRC ambassador here to periodically attend the Fishmongers Head of Mission meeting (a group of US-Canada-Australia-EU ambassadors who meet weekly) to explore potential areas of cooperation. Conze believes that the PRC might even be useful in moving security sector reform forward as it has a potential impact on economic stability, and he does not believe South Africa will be really useful in this regard.

¶5. (C) COMMENT: While Conze, like many of the European ambassadors here, often puts too much faith in utterances by

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MDC officials, the characterization of the ZANU-PF factions seems right on the money. It also indicates that change here will come slowly, and that Mugabe, who has without a doubt been a large part of the problem, is essential to maintaining control long enough to allow reform to take hold. He will continue to make meaningless concessions here and there, but is not likely to cede any power or control for the foreseeable future. MDC for its part seems to understand and accept this. Conze’s views on involving China are intriguing, given the general attitude of most EU personnel here. Most don’t know much about PRC activities, and view those they are aware of with suspicion. Conze is the first to acknowledge that China too is part of the problem and could possibly be part of the solution. His idea of involving them in security sector reform, however, is likely to cause strong pushback from some of the more conservative EU members; and in fact, his idea of inviting the Chinese ambassador to the Fishmonger’s meeting is also likely to meet some resistance. This promises to be an interesting food fight. END COMMENT.

RAY

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(WIKILEAKS) McGee - REGIME ELITES LOOTING DEADLY DIAMOND FIELD

Of course Andrew Cranswick has now himself been shown to be extremely corrupt, getting more than the legal appropriation of diamond fields and evading taxes in Australia. See Cranswick's minerals smuggling racket exposed and ACR's Cranswick declared bankrupt in Australia, no perm dom

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2018
TAGS: PGOV EMIN ASEC PHUM ZI
SUBJECT: REGIME ELITES LOOTING DEADLY DIAMOND FIELD

REF: 2007 HARARE 319

Classified By: Ambassador James D. McGee for reason 1.4 (d)

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SUMMARY
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¶1. (C) The CEO of a British mining company described to us how high-ranking Zimbabwean government officials and well-connected elites are generating millions of dollars in personal income by hiring teams of diggers to hand-extract diamonds from the Chiadzwa mine in eastern Zimbabwe. They are selling the undocumented diamonds to a mix of foreign buyers including Belgians, Israelis, Lebanese, Russians and South Africans who smuggle them out of the country for cutting and resale elsewhere. Despite efforts to control the diamond site with police, the prospect of accessible diamonds lying just beneath the soil's surface has attracted a swarm of several thousand local and foreign diggers. The police response has been violent, with a handful of homicides reported each week, though that number could grow as diggers arm themselves and attract police and army deserters to their ranks. END SUMMARY

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High-Ranking Officials Trading Diamonds
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¶2. (C) On November 6, poloff met with Andrew Cranswick, the CEO of African Consolidated Resources (ACR), the publicly-traded British firm that had its Chiadzwa diamond claim in the Marange district of Manicaland seized by the government parastatal Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) in 2006 (reftel). According to Cranswick, there is a small group of high-ranking Zimbabwean officials who have been extracting tremendous diamond profits from Chiadzwa. Cranswick said that RBZ Governor Gideon Gono, Grace Mugabe, wife of President Robert Mugabe, Vice President Joyce Mujuru, Mines and Mining Development Minister Amos Midzi, General Constantine Chiwenga and wife Jocelyn, CIO Director Happyton Bonyongwe, Manicaland Governor Chris Mushowe, and several white Zimbabweans, including Ken Sharpe, Greg Scott, and Hendrik O,Neill, are all involved in the Marange diamond trade.

¶3. (C) On October 14, econ specialist traveled to the periphery of the no-go area around the Chiadzwa diamond site located about 60 km southwest of Mutare in Manicaland. Repeated inquiries about who was involved in the diamond trade elicited many of the same names mentioned by Cranswick.

¶4. (C) Econ specialist also met with Manatsawani Mutasa, a ZANU-PF Central Committee member and Manicaland resident, who added that Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa, Women's Affairs Minister Oppah Muchinguri, and Sabina Mugabe--sister of President Mugabe--have also been profiting from the purchase and sale of Chiadzwa diamonds.

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How the Chiadzwa Diamond Trade Works
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¶5. (C) The GOZ possesses the diamond mining rights to Chiadzwa, but the Zimbabwe Mining Development Corporation (ZMDC) does not do any extraction itself. The ZMDC brought in some mining equipment in 2006 after seizing the mining rights from ACR, but their efforts were minimal and soon halted altogether. According to Cranswick, all extraction is now being done by hand panners who merely sift the top meter of soil. Some of these panners operate in teams that sell

HARARE 00001016 002 OF 005

their diamonds to representatives of the above-named officials and connected elites. Other panners are individual operators who merely sell to the highest bidder. Often the panners who are affiliated with a particular regime buyer, will only sell a portion of their diamonds to that person's representative, holding back the remainder to sell for higher prices to foreign buyers offering hard currency.

¶6. (C) The diamonds that are sold to regime members and elites are sold for freshly printed Zimbabwean notes issued by the RBZ. These diamonds are aggregated and resold to foreign buyers for US dollars or rand in nearby Mutare, in Harare, over the border in the Mozambican towns of Manica and Chimoio, or even in South Africa. (NOTE: Econ specialist reported that Mutare was awash with diamond money. The Holiday Inn was booked with guests checking in for weeks at a time. Food prices in shops near Marange were exorbitant, with meat prices four times higher than in Harare. END NOTE.)

¶7. (C) The diamonds that are not sold to regime members and elites, but instead are sold directly to foreign buyers, actually constitute the majority of the diamond trade in Chiadzwa. Cranswick said that around 85 percent of the diamonds extracted from Chiadzwa are sold directly to foreign buyers. Even so, he conservatively estimated that Mujuru, Gono and the rest were probably each making several hundred thousand dollars a month.

¶8. (C) Whether bought first by regime members or not, eventually the diamonds are sold to a mix of Belgians, Israelis, Lebanese (the largest contingent), Russians, and
South Africans. A well-known buyer named Gonyeti fronts for Gono, as do two other buyers named Tendai Makurumidze and Takunda Nyaguze, according to Mutasa. Once sold to foreigners, the majority of the diamonds are smuggled to Dubai and sold at the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre Authority, a dedicated economic free-trade zone created in 2002 for the exchange of metals and commodities, most notably gold and diamonds. Although Zimbabwe is a participant in the Kimberley process, the diamonds from Chiadzwa are undocumented and therefore are not in compliance with Kimberley, which requires loose uncut diamonds to be certified.

¶9. (C) The highest quality diamonds are not sent to Dubai,
but are shipped to Belgium, Israel, or South Africa for
cutting. Despite this wide dispersal, Chiadzwa diamonds are
very distinctive because of their age, color, and clarity and
can easily be traced back to the Marange mine, according to
Cranswick. He implicated Ernie Blom, president of South
Africa's Diamond Merchants Association in the illicit trade
of Chiadzwa diamonds, and said that Blom had been known to
boast of his involvement in illegal Zimbabwean diamonds.
When asked why purportedly reputable diamond dealers would
involve themselves in Chiadzwa, Cranswick said that the site
was "massive" with tremendous profit potential that was
attracting numerous buyers. One such group consisted of
Russians who had recently bought US$500,000 worth of diamonds
at an MMCZ auction, paying US$29/carat. They bought eight to
ten carat rough diamonds, five to ten percent of which were
gem quality.

--------------------------------
Diamond Trade a Violent Business
--------------------------------

¶10. (C) The diamond frenzy in Chiadzwa has led to hundreds
and possibly thousands of homicides. Word of easy diamonds
spurred a rush of Zimbabwean and foreign diggers to the area
including Angolans, Congolese, Mozambicans, South Africans
and Zambians, as well as diggers from as far away as Sierra

HARARE 00001016 003 OF 005

Leone and Cote D'Ivoire Cranswick estimated there are
currently around three or four thousand diggers swarming over
the 70 hectare Chiadzwa site. The police have unsuccessfully
tried to prevent the site from becoming overrun, and
routinely use live fire to chase away diggers. Anyone trying
to enter the area has to present a Zimbabwean national
identification card with a registration number that ends in
"75", signifying the person is a resident of the Mutare
region of Manicaland.

¶11. (C) During the first weekend of November, police killed
at least five panners in Chiadzwa, according to the on-line
newspaper Zimbabwe Times. While usually operating on foot
with attack dogs, this time the police used a helicopter to
shoot at panners. Passmore Nyakureba, a lawyer with the
Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights said, "This has become an
everyday scenario. Up to five people die every week as a
result of being shot at by police or after being bitten by
dogs." Cranswick said that at the peak of the frenzy in
2007, up to a hundred panners were shot in a week.

¶12. (C) In response to aggressive police action, diggers
began arming themselves with handguns and in some cases
automatic weapons. They also formed loose gangs in an
attempt to protect themselves as well as "claimed" areas.
Cranswick said that some members of the police and army have
deserted in order to join the digging, and they typically
brought their firearms with them. Some former police even
still wear their uniforms as they search for diamonds.

-------------------------------------
Police Corrupted; Community Destroyed
-------------------------------------

¶13. (C) Cranswick said that the police were rotated into the
area on two-week shifts to control the mining and keep
unauthorized diggers out, but they were immediately
corrupted. Police officers routinely charged 100 rand or
US$10 a person for a day's digging in Chiadzwa. The military
has largely avoided the area out of fear that commanding
officers would lose control of their troops, according to
Cranswick.

¶14. (C) Cranswick maintained that local chiefs were on ACR's
side in its pending court battle to win back its claim. They
realized that the "curse" of diamonds had wreaked havoc in
the community. Children were no longer attending school, the
environmental degradation was severe, lawlessness and
violence reigned, and the community was not benefiting from
the resource. According to an independent weekly newspaper,
three quarters of the schools in Marange, Buhera, and
Chimanimani districts failed to open this term because
teachers and students alike were digging for diamonds.

----------------
What's At Stake?
----------------

¶15. (C) Chiadzwa has the potential of being a major source
of industrial and gem quality diamonds. What makes it so
commercially valuable is that it possesses a diverse mix of
different size and color stones, all within just a few meters
of the surface. It also has a high carat per hundred tons
(CPHT) ratio, a measure the industry uses to characterize the
diamond concentration. Cranswick told us he was
confidentially shown a report prepared for the De Beers
Corporation by noted geologist John Ward. The report
estimated that Chiadzwa had a CPHT of over 1,000.
By
comparison, the Rio Tinto/Rio Zimbabwe-owned Murowa diamond
mine near Zvishavane in Midlands province has a CPHT of 120.


HARARE 00001016 004 OF 005


¶16. (C) Eye witnesses and panners told us that they were extracting both industrial and gem quality stones, but predominantly the former. Cranswick believed that the site
had 30 to 40 percent industrial diamonds
and the rest gem quality, including very good quality five to 30 carat colored diamonds. In his view, the area could be commercially exploited for five to 25 years, including excavation of diamond yielding hard rock that ran deeper than the one meter depth currently being worked. Econ specialist also was told that another diamond field was discovered this year within five km of Chiadzwa at the village of Chirasika. Panners had begun working the site and it had not yet become a police-restricted area. We have no estimates for the potential of this new diamond discovery.

¶17. (C) On October 27, Gono publicly declared that the
Zimbabwean economy could be turned around by stemming losses
caused by illegal mining at Chiadzwa. According to Gono, "A
reliable estimate shows that US$1.2 billion per month would
be realized from diamond sales in the country, enough to
solve the economic challenges the country is currently
facing." Cranswick said that while the estimate is probably
exaggerated, Gono may be looking for a large one time
dividend by selling a share of the mine or the mining rights
to an outside investor. This would dwarf the relatively
small profits he is now accruing from the mine.

¶18. (C) ACR has offered the government a deal in which ACR would take a 49 percent share of all diamond proceeds and
give the rest to the GOZ, but Cranswick did not seem
optimistic that the government would accept the deal.


-----------------------------
Two Other Major Diamond Mines
-----------------------------

¶19. (U) Murowa is a well-regulated mine operated by the
British multinational mining giant Rio Tinto, which since
2004 has held a 78 percent share in the open-pit Murowa
diamond mine in Zvishavane district, in southern Masvingo
province. Murowa is a deep kimberlitic deposit that requires
heavy machinery to extract the soil and rock.

¶20. (U) River Ranch is partially owned by retired General Solomon Mujuru (husband of Vice President Joyce Mujuru) and is located in Beitbridge in Matabeleland South. Mujuru gained a 20 percent stake in the mine at the expense of a local company, Bubye Minerals, which was pushed out to Mujuru's benefit. Bubye Minerals contested the ownership change, but was thwarted by the Zimbabwean courts. It is unclear if Mujuru purchased his stake.

-------
COMMENT
-------

¶21. (C) In a country filled with corrupt schemes, the diamond business in Zimbabwe is one of the dirtiest. Mining in general remains the largest single source of foreign exchange, but the potential of Chiadzwa is being lost to Zimbabwean corruption. While Gono talks about using diamonds to stabilize the Zimbabwean economy, he would only do so if he thought he could personally make more in the process. At present, police trying to bring order to Chiadzwa are benefiting Zimbabwean officials who see the diamond field as a new source of illegitimateincome; the people of Zimbabwe are seeing little return.

¶22. (C) It is also clear that Cranswick is a businessman trying to find any pressure point he can through which to leverage his own claim. At the same time, he sheds light on

HARARE 00001016 005 OF 005

an industry that is enriching many of the same old corrupt Zimbabwean elite--and causing violence and deaths that so far have received little attention. END COMMENT.

MCGEE

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(WIKILEAKS) ZIMBABWE - November 2000

FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7738
INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

Wednesday, 29 November 2000, 13:59
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 006677
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
EO 12958 DECL: 11/29/10
TAGS PGOV, PREL, ECON, PINR, ZI, SA
SUBJECT: ASSISTANT SECRETARY MEETS WITH ZIMBABWE
CONFIDENTIAL
PAGE 02 HARARE 06677 01 OF 03 291400Z OPPOSITION LEADER
REFTEL: HARARE 6584
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR TOM MCDONALD FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: ASSISTANT SECRETARY SUSAN E. RICE MET MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI ON NOVEMBER 16. TSVANGIRAI OFFERED FOUR SIPDIS SCENARIOS UNDER WHICH THE CURRENT POLITICAL CRISIS COULD UNFOLD. HE BELIEVES A TRANSITIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT IS THE BEST WAY OUT OF THE CRISIS PITTING THE PEOPLE AGAINST THEIR UNPOPULAR LEADER. MASS ACTION WILL BE CONSIDERED INITIALLY AT THE MDC’S NATIONAL COUNCIL MEETING NOVEMBER 24. MASS ACTION WOULD BE INTENDED TO PRESSURE PRESIDENT MUGABE TO RESIGN. THE MDC UNDERSTANDS THE SERIOUS RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH MASS ACTION, TSVANGIRAI PROFESSED, AND RECOGNIZES THAT IT IS IN THE COUNTRY’S BEST INTEREST TO AVOID BLOODSHED. EVERYONE IS FOCUSED ON SEEING MUGABE GO, BUT IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE A CONVERGENCE OF OPPOSITION FROM ZANU-PF, THE MILITARY, AND REGIONAL LEADERS TO FORCE HIM OUT. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) ON NOVEMBER 16, ASSISTANT SECRETARY SUSAN E. RICE, HER DELEGATION, AMBASSADOR MCDONALD, DCM, AND POLOFF (NOTETAKER) HAD A BREAKFAST MEETING WITH MDC PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI. TSVANGIRAI WAS ACCOMPANIED BY MDC NATIONAL CHAIRMAN ISAAC MATONGO.

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 03 HARARE 06677 01 OF 03 291400Z
--------------------------------------
TSVANGIRAI LOOKS INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL
SIPDIS
--------------------------------------

¶3. (C) TSVANGIRAI BEGAN BY SAYING THAT HE SEES THREE FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS IN ZIMBABWE: LAWLESSNESS, THE LAND QUESTION, AND THE ECONOMY, AND EMPHASIZED THAT THE ECONOMY IS THE MOST DIRE PROBLEM. HE ALSO STATED THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE (GOZ) IS TRYING TO POLARIZE THE POLITICAL PLAYERS IN THE COUNTRY.

THE MDC LEADER SEES FOUR POTENTIAL SCENARIOS EMERGING FROM THE CURRENT POLITICAL CRISIS:

1) THE PEOPLE WAIT 18 MONTHS TO VOTE MUGABE OUT--THIS IS THE MOST CONSTITUTIONAL, BUT LEAST LIKELY SCENARIO.

2) THERE IS AN ACCELERATED, BUT STILL CONSTITUTIONAL, PROCESS WHEREBY MUGABE RESIGNS OR IS EASED OUT AT THE DECEMBER ZANU-PF CONGRESS. THIS IS NOT VERY LIKELY EITHER SINCE MUGABE HAS OUSTED THE PROVINCIAL PARTY EXECUTIVES THAT MIGHT CHALLENGE HIS INTENTION TO RUN AGAIN IN 2002.

3) MASS ACTION IS UNDERTAKEN, FORCING MUGABE TO LEAVE THE SCENE EARLY. TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT THIS OPTION MUST BE CAREFULLY SIPDIS CONSIDERED, AND HE ASKED RHETORICALLY: DO WE WANT TO PUSH OUT AN ELECTED PRESIDENT BEFORE HIS TERM IS UP?

4) AN ARMY COUP THAT REMOVES MUGABE, POSSIBLY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF BLOODSHED, FROM WHICH IT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR ZIMBABWE TO RECOVER.

¶4. (C) IDEALLY, TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED, THE MDC WOULD LIKE TO SEE A TRANSITIONAL ARRANGEMENT FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS WHERE ZANU-PF REMAINED IN CONTROL OF THE GOVERNMENT BUT BROUGHT IN MDC MINISTERS--ESSENTIALLY, A

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 06677 01 OF 03 291400Z

COALITION GOVERNMENT. THE GOAL OF A TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT WOULD BE TO ARREST THE ECONOMIC DECLINE, RESTORE INTERNATIONAL CONFIDENCE IN ZIMBABWE, AND ESTABLISH THE CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESS FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. WHEN ASKED ABOUT AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION FIRST TO MAKE A COALITION GOVERNMENT MORE FEASIBLE, TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT A CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM PROCESS SIPDIS SHOULD BE BROAD-BASED AND WELL-CONSIDERED. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TIME TO GO THROUGH THAT PROCESS NOW. HE SAID THE ECONOMY IS THE PRIORITY ISSUE BECAUSE CONFIDENCE MUST BE RESTORED IN IT BEFORE THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2002. IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE TO TALK ABOUT THE CONSTITUTION WHILE THE PEOPLE ARE SUFFERING.

---------------------------
MASS ACTION IS ON THE TABLE
---------------------------

¶5. (C) THE OPPOSITION LEADER WENT ON TO SAY THAT THE COUNTRY CANNOT CONTINUE AS IT HAS FOR ANOTHER SIX MONTHS. WE KNOW THAT ZIMBABWE IS NOT LIKE YUGOSLAVIA, BUT THE PEOPLE ARE DEMANDING CHANGE BEFORE THE SITUATION GETS WORSE, HE PROFESSED. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THE MDC WOULD WAIT UNTIL 2002 FOR CHANGE, BUT THE ECONOMIC DECLINE IS SO STEEP THAT IF IT WAITS THAT LONG,

CONFIDENTIAL
CONFIDENTIAL PTQ1865
PAGE 01 HARARE 06677 02 OF 03 291401Z ACTION AF-00
INFO LOG-00 NP-00 AID-00 ACQ-00 CEA-01 CIAE-00 COME-00 CTME-00 DINT-00 DODE-00 DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 EXIM-01 E-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00 VC-00 FRB-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 ITC-01 LAB-01 L-00 VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 USIE-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 PRM-02 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00 SAS-00 SWCI-00 /012W ------------------A54E56 291401Z /38 O 291359Z

NOV 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7739 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 03 HARARE 006677 SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR ZI SA
PAGE 02 HARARE 06677 02 OF 03 291401Z OPPOSITION LEADER

THERE WILL BE “NOTHING TO VOTE FOR” BY THE TIME THE ELECTION ARRIVES. THE MDC’S NATIONAL COUNCIL , AT LEAST INITIALLY, WILL MEET NOVEMBER 24 TO CONSIDER MASS ACTION. IF THE EXECUTIVE DECIDES TO CONDUCT A MASS ACTION, IT WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF GENERAL STRIKE TO BEGIN IN MID-DECEMBER WHEN CHILDREN ARE HOME FROM SCHOOL AND BUSINESSES BEGIN TO CLOSE ANYWAY FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY. THIS WOULD MINIMIZE THE ECONOMIC IMPACT ON THE POPULATION, TSVANGIRAI BELIEVES.

(NOTE: THE MDC’S NATIONAL COUNCIL CANCELLED PLANS FOR MASS ACTION AT ITS NOVEMBER 24 MEETING. SEE REFTEL. END NOTE.) HE SAID THE MDC UNDERSTANDS THE MAGNITUDE AND SERIOUSNESS OF MASS ACTION, AND IT HAS TRIED TO POSTPONE IT FOR AS LONG AS POSSIBLE, BUT THE POPULAR SENTIMENT IS TO DO IT. A GENERAL STAY-AWAY IS PREFERABLE TO CONFRONTATION SINCE IT IS NOT IN THE COUNTRY’S BEST INTEREST TO HAVE VIOLENCE OR BLOODSHED.

¶6. (C) ON THE GOZ’S REACTION TO A MASS DEMONSTRATION IN HARARE, TSVANGIRAI BELIEVED THE ARMY WOULDN’T HESITATE TO SHOOT A LOT OF PEOPLE. HE THOUGHT ITS REACTION WOULD BE LESS SEVERE IN OTHER CITIES LIKE BULAWAYO AND MUTARE, WHERE THE NUMBER OF TROOPS IS MUCH FEWER AND THEIR LOYALTY TO MUGABE MORE QUESTIONABLE. ON THE OTHER HAND, HE SEES THE MILITARY AS DIVIDED. MUGABE HAS APPROPRIATED THE TOP BRASS FOR HIS OWN ENDS, AND THEY ARE LOYAL TO HIM. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF THE MILITARY’S LOWER RANKS DO NOT SUPPORT THE PRESIDENT, TSVANGIRAI CLAIMED.

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06677 02 OF 03 291401Z

---------------------
HOW TO GET MUGABE OUT
---------------------

¶7. (C) THE MILITARY IS ONE OF THE THREE MAJOR INFLUENCES ON MUGABE, TSVANGIRAI CONTINUED. THE OTHER TWO ARE ZANU-PF AND REGIONAL LEADERS. IF MUGABE IS TO BE PRESSURED TO LEAVE THE SCENE, ALL THREE MUST TURN AGAINST HIM, THE OPPOSITION LEADER DECLARED. WHEN ASKED WHAT ELSE MIGHT INDUCE MUGABE TO STEP DOWN, TSVANGIRAI SAID THE PRESIDENT WILL DO SO ONLY AFTER HE HAS HAD HIS REVENGE AGAINST THE WHITES AND ONLY AFTER HE HAS REIGNED IN ZANU-PF DISSIDENTS AND UNIFIED HIS PARTY. MUGABE IS A VINDICTIVE PERSON, TSVANGIRAI PROFESSED. FOR ITS PART, THE MDC RECOGNIZES MUGABE AS THE NATION’S FIRST LEADER AND A VERY IMPORTANT ONE IN ITS HISTORY. THE MDC WON’T ENGAGE IN RETRIBUTION AGAINST MUGABE AND HIS SUPPORTERS, TSVANGIRAI HINTED, BECAUSE “WE CAN’T FOCUS ON THE PAST IF WE ARE TO MOVE FORWARD.” WHILE MUGABE IS PRESIDENT, THE MDC LEADERSHIP WON’T MAKE PERSONAL COMMENTS ABOUT HIM, AS THAT WOULD JUST INFLAME THE SITUATION.

------------------------
ROLE OF REGIONAL LEADERS
------------------------

¶8. (C) THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY ASKED THE MDC LEADER ABOUT THE ROLE REGIONAL LEADERS COULD PLAY IN RESOLVING THE SITUATION. TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT AFTER INITIALLY

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 HARARE 06677 02 OF 03 291401Z

SHOWING AMBIVALENCE TOWARD ZIMBABWE, SOUTH AFRICAN PRESIDENT MBEKI HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO TALK MORE FIRMLY AND IS SHOWING SIGNS HE WILL NO LONGER TOLERATE THE SITUATION IN ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI MENTIONED THAT ON HIS LAST VISIT TO SOUTH AFRICA, HE MET WITH FORMER PRESIDENT MANDELA--WHO STILL EXERTS GREAT INFLUENCE IN SOUTH AFRICA, HE STATED--AND URGED THE LEADER TO INTERVENE IN ZIMBABWE. HE DID NOT RECEIVE A FIRM COMMITMENT FROM MANDELA, HOWEVER, AND DID NOT SEE MBEKI. ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT CHILUBA HAS BEEN DISTANT WITH THE MDC..

------------------------
MDC’S VIEW ON LAND ISSUE
------------------------


¶9. (C) ON THE LAND ISSUE, TSVANGIRAI ACKNOWLEDGED THAT LAND REFORM WAS “UNFINISHED” BUSINESS AND MUST BE ADDRESSED SERIOUSLY BY ANY GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. HOWEVER, EQUITY, LEGALITY AND ECONOMIC VIABILITY MUST BE KEYSTONES TO ANY SUCCESSFUL LAND REFORM PROGRAM. THE MDC SUPPORTS THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A LAND COMMISSION TO OVERSEE THE REDISTRIBUTION OF LAND. THE MDC ALSO SEES THE 1998 DONORS CONFERENCE AS THE STARTING POINT FOR LAND REFORM, AND IT WOULD SUPPORT THE UNDP LAND INITIATIVE, THE OPPOSITION LEADER STATED. TSVANGIRAI SAID THAT WHEN HE WAS IN THE UK RECENTLY, HE TOLD THE



A54E5D 291401Z /38 O 291359Z

NOV 00 FM AMEMBASSY HARARE TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7740 INFO NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 03 HARARE 006677
SIPDIS
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR GAYLE SMITH
LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY
PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/10 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR ZI SA
PAGE 02 HARARE 06677 03 OF 03 291401Z OPPOSITION LEADER
BRITISH TO REFRAIN FROM MAKING PUBLIC STATEMENTS ON LAND REFORM IN ZIMBABWE AND TO USE ITS INFLUENCE BEHIND THE SCENES TO RESOLVE THE PROBLEM.


------------------------------------
ZIMBABWE NEEDS A PEACEFUL TRANSITION
------------------------------------

¶10. (C) THE ASSISTANT SECRETARY STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF A PEACEFUL POLITICAL TRANSITION TO THE OPPOSITION LEADER. THE USG SEES HUGE RISKS--WITH FEW, IF ANY, UPSIDES--TO MASS ACTION, AND URGED THE MDC TO MANAGE THE POLITICAL TRANSITION CAREFULLY. WE HAVE URGED THE GOZ NOT TO USE LETHAL FORCE ON DEMONSTRATORS, AND WE URGE THE OPPOSITION NOT TO GET IN A SITUATION WHERE LETHAL FORCE MIGHT BE USED, THE SECRETARY SAID. THE USG ALSO WANTS TO ENCOURAGE THE MDC TO ENGAGE IN A DIALOGUE WITH MODERATES IN ZANU-PF, EVEN IF PRIVATELY. A/S RICE AFFIRMED THE USG’S WILLINGNESS TO FACILITATE SUCH CONTACTS, IF DESIRED. SHE ALSO PUSHED THE MDC TO PARTICIPATE IN THE GOVERNANCE OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH ITS SUBSTANTIAL PRESENCE IN PARLIAMENT, AND LAMENTED THE MDC FAILURE TO ENGAGE IN THE PREPARATION OF THE BUDGET, DESPITE THE FINANCE MINISTER’S SOLICITATION OF MDC INPUT. SUCH ENGAGEMENT, RICE ARGUED, WOULD SHOW THAT THE MDC IS A SERIOUS AND CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVE TO ZANU- PF. TSVANGIRAI, WHEN PRESSED, RELUCTANTLY TOOK THIS POINT ON BOARD.

CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 HARARE 06677 03 OF 03 291401Z 11.


(C) COMMENT: TSVANGIRAI WAS FRANK, CONFIDENT AND RELAXED. HOWEVER, HE DID NOT CONVINCE US THAT THE MDC HAS A CLEAR OR WELL-THOUGHT-OUT PLAN FOR MASS ACTION OR WHAT IT WOULD ACCOMPLISH. HIS COMMENTS SUGGESTED THE MDC IS PINNING HOPE ON INTERNAL ZANU-PF MACHINATIONS TO FORCE MUGABE FROM POWER. HIS PUBLIC APPROVAL OF FINANCE MINISTER MAKONI’S BUDGET, AS REPORTED IN THE NOVEMBER 17 “THE DAILY NEWS,” MAY BE AN INDICATION OF HIS UNDERSTANDING OF THE NEED TO DEMONSTRATE CREDIBLE POLITICAL LEADERSHIP. TSVANGIRAI IS CLEARLY UNDER PRESSURE FROM THE PUBLIC TO LEAD A CHANGE OF GOVERNMENT. OTHER INTERLOCUTORS HAVE TOLD US THAT IF HE DOES NOT DO SO SOON, HE HIMSELF MAY BE FORCED FROM THE PARTY LEADERSHIP. NOW THAT THE QUESTION OF MASS ACTION IS MOOT FOR THE TIME-BEING, IT WILL BE UP TO TSVANGIRAI TO CHANNEL THE PEOPLE’S, AND HIS OWN PARTY MEMBERS’, FRUSTRATION INTO CONSTRUCTIVE CHANGE. IF TSVANGIRAI CAN DO THAT, HIS POSITION WILL BE STRENGTHENED IMMEASURABLY, BOTH HERE AND ABROAD. END COMMENT.
¶12. (U) A/S RICE HAS CLEARED THIS MESSAGE.
MCDONALD
CONFIDENTIAL

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(WIKILEAKS) Simba Makoni Mentioned For Soft Coup





Viewing cable 07PRETORIA356, C) EXILED ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMEN FLOAT ZIMBABWE
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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
07PRETORIA356 2007-01-30 16:04 2010-12-08 21:09 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Pretoria

VZCZCXRO2660
RR RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSA #0356/01 0301607
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 301607Z JAN 07
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 7972
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 2015
RUEHBS/AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS 0983
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1112
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0998
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0343
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

Tuesday, 30 January 2007, 16:07
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PRETORIA 000356
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/S
EO 12958 DECL: 01/29/2017
TAGS PREL, ZI, SF
SUBJECT: (C) EXILED ZIMBABWEAN BUSINESSMEN FLOAT ZIMBABWE
POWERSHARING IDEA
Classified By: Acting Deputy Chief of Mission Elizabeth Hinson. Reason s 1.4(b) and (d).
(U) This message has been coordinated with AmEmbassy Harare.

¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Exiled Zimbabwean businessmanXXXXXXXXXXXX is quietly floating an idea to shift executive power from President Mugabe to a “technocratic” Prime Minister. To get Mugabe to accept the deal, Mugabe would remain President until 2010 with some power over the security apparatus, but the Prime Minister would run the economy and get the country back on its feet. All parties would work together to draft a new constitution. XXXXXXXXXXXX was open to ideas on who best to sell the plan, but suggested new UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, working through an envoy like former Malaysian PM Mahathir, as possible mediators. We cannot comment on the merits of the plan, but find it encouraging that senior Zimbabwean exile businessmen are discussing solutions to their country’s political and economic crisis. Embassy Harare notes that the concept is increasingly in circulation in Harare and may not require outside intervention. END SUMMARY.

¶2. (C) A group of prominent Zimbabwean businessmen living in South Africa, led by XXXXXXXXXXXX, discussed with visiting NIO for Africa, PolCounselor and PolOff January 27 a possible strategy for transferring executive power from President Robert Mugabe to a “technocratic” prime minister. XXXXXXXXXXXX was joined by XXXXXXXXXXXX, XXXXXXXXXXXX, and XXXXXXXXXXXX. The four businessmen agreed that there is a “window of opportunity” to bring positive change to Zimbabwe, opened by the deteriorating economic situation and Mugabe’s advancing age and declining health.

¶3. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX’s strategy builds on the assumption that Mugabe will never voluntarily give up power. He fears for his future if he steps down -- citing the Charles Taylor example XXXXXXXXXXXX.

¶4. (C) Under XXXXXXXXXXXX’s (somewhat convoluted) plan:
-- Mugabe gets the extension of his presidential term to 2010, but would share power with a “technocratic” Prime Minister during the 2007-10 period.
-- The PM would have to be acceptable to 85 percent of the parliament, thus requiring opposition MDC support, and could only be removed by an 85 percent vote in parliament.
-- The President would still appoint the key security ministers of Defense, Home Affairs, and National Security. The PM would appoint the other cabinet members, particularly in the economic area. However, deployment of troops would require the approval of both the PM and President.
-- The PM would not be eligible to run for President in 2010, thus ensuring his or her political independence.
-- Between 2007-10, the Constitution and electoral system would be reviewed, and a new constitution put in place.
-- In return for these “reforms,” the international community would agree to the phased lifting of sanctions, the “acceptance” of the extension of Mugabe,s term to 2010, and perhaps most importantly to provide economic assistance to help rehabilitate the Zimbabwean economy.

¶5. (C) XXXXXXXXXXXX said that a number of Zimbabweans could play the role of technocratic Prime Minister. XXXXXXXXXXXX.

¶6. (C) On the question of who sells this plan to Mugabe, XXXXXXXXXXXX was open to ideas. He said that Moeletsi Mbeki, a
PRETORIA 00000356 002 OF 002
South African businessman and (estranged) brother to the President, recommended against South Africa playing the mediation role, arguing that ForMin Dlamini-Zuma is too close to Mugabe. Moeletsi Mbeki recommended involving the new UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, working through an envoy like SIPDIS former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir.

¶7. (C) COMMENT: We cannot comment on whether Mugabe might accept a power-sharing plan like XXXXXXXXXXXX proposes or who is best to convince Mugabe, but it is encouraging that four senior Zimbabwean businessmen are actively discussing ideas to resolve their country’s political and economic crisis. For the last seven years, most exiled Zimbabwean businessmen in South Africa have avoided any political involvement in their home country. We are not as quick as Moeletsi Mbeki to dismiss a possible South African role in any proposed transition deal, even if they are not the ones to sell it directly to Mugabe. The South African Government is increasingly frustrated with Mugabe’s intransigence and Zimbabwe’s economic decline, which impedes regional integration and growth; President Thabo Mbeki wants to see Zimbabwe “resolved” before he leaves power in 2009; and the last thing South Africa wants while hosting the 2010 World Cup is a messy and violent election in Zimbabwe. END COMMENT.

¶8. (C) EMBASSY HARARE COMMENT: The concept described by XXXXXXXXXXXX is increasingly in circulation in Harare. Morgan Tsvangirai told Emboffs on 30 January that this is Mugabe,s
SIPDIS Plan B as he runs into growing resistance to 2010 and that the candidate for PM would be Simba Makoni. Significant outside intervention, therefore, may not be necessary; however, gentle encouragement from Pretoria is unlikely to be amiss. UN SYG Ban may not wish to engage on this issue at the beginning of his tenure, especially in view of the way Mugabe treated former UN SYG Annan. END EMBASSY HARARE COMMENT.

BOST

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(NEWZIMBABWE) MDC-M: put down your cross or be crucified on it

MDC-M: put down your cross or be crucified on it
by Methuseli Moyo
09/12/2010 00:00:00

A CLOSE friend and professional colleague asked me to assist him come up with a media campaign strategy for the MDC (the one without Morgan Tsvangirai’s surname ) during the run-up to the March 2008 elections.

“They have two options. Either they brand themselves as a regional (Matabeleland) party and win all the seats in the region, or go back and rejoin Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC and retain their seats and then disengage again and continue to operate as a separate faction of the MDC.”

That was my advice to the MDC, through my colleague of course. He asked me to put my “strategy” in writing, which I did later that evening at home and handed over to him the following morning. After a brief discussion, we agreed to refine the “strategy” and that he would hand it over to the MDC officials who had assigned him.

I have no reason not to trust my friend presented the “strategy” to the MDC officials. As I feared, our “strategy” was not implemented. I presumed it was because then the MDC leadership, particularly from Matabeleland, did not imagine that the people would abandon them. Also, they mistakenly assumed that the rest of the people were rational and fair, and would choose them because they were “principled and were the original MDC” anyway, and Tsvangirai and his gang were unprincipled defectors.

While this is true and could win you elections in civilized democracies, it has never worked, and will never work in Zimbabwe where tribe and colour is more important than anything else.

Professor Welshman Ncube and others in the MDC thought they could overcome the tribal barrier by having Professor Arthur Mutambara as the leader of their party. Sadly, the majority (the Shona) saw this as tokenism and stuck to Tsvangirai’s MDC and Robert Mugabe’s Zanu PF. Sadly again for Ncube and others, their Ndebele “kith and kin” were not convinced enough that MDC (Mutambara) really stood for them. If they stood for Matabeleland, why would they “hire” someone from Mashonaland to be president of the party? The MDC lost both the national and the regional vote because it was not clear who (and not what) it stood for.

Looking back, our “strategy” could have worked. “Rejoining” Tsvangirai would have ensured that Prof Ncube, Paul Themba Nyathi, Japhet Ndabeni-Ncube, Fletcher Dulini-Ncube and other key figures of the MDC (M) would have won their constituencies “uncontested”, and that Zanu PF would have come out empty-handed in Matabeleland, and the “unified” MDC would have a very clear majority in Parliament, and Tsvangirai would have beaten Mugabe hands-down in the presidential race.

When it became clear that Ncube and others did not see the looming danger of staking their political future against MDC-T, whose leader was then the only hope against Mugabe, God intervened when Dumiso Dabengwa and Simba Makoni and their Mavambo Kusile Dawn project came along.

The MDC lost the plot when Prof Mutambara declared long before the March 2008 polls that he would not “contest against brother Morgan Tsvangirai”. In a way, Mutambara capitulated to Tsvangirai, thereby rendering his own party irrelevant in the “removal of Mugabe”. Whether they like it or not, the 10 MDC (Mutambara) MPs and handful of senators who survived should thank Dumiso Dabengwa and Simba Makoni.

The MDC did well in areas where Mavambo won, such as in Nkayi, Lupane, Bulima, and Tsholotsho. Anyone who cannot see this does not need to waste his/her energy trying to be a politician. Precisely, that is the reason why Dabengwa and others were convinced it was time to bring back the real thing, which is Zapu.

Like in 2008, the MDC leadership is yet again being called upon to make a decision, and hopefully this time around they will not take a plunge into unknown waters. In my view, Ncube, Nyathi, Dulini-Ncube, and perhaps Priscilla Misihairambwi-Mushonga have everything to lose this time around if they do not make the right choice.

As for Mutambara, he has nothing to lose because he ended up as Deputy Prime Minister even when he did not contest for the presidency. By not contesting Tsvangirai, Mutambara indirectly ensured that he did not create bad blood between himself and his “brother”, while Ncube, Nyathi and Dulini and others created bad blood between themselves and their “brothers (and sisters)” such as Thokozani Khuphe and Lovemore Moyo by fighting it out in the constituencies.

Being the clever professor that he is, Mutambara continues with his ambiguity, which he has now extended to Mugabe, meaning he could be accommodated by either of the two whenever he wanted. He is what we used to call umandawo (a player who plays for both [or all] teams) when we played soccer as children.

The successful revival of Zapu has presented a new and trickier situation not only for Zanu PF and the MDC-T, but for the MDC (Mutambara) mainly because this party’s only 10 (now seven) House of Assembly seats are in Matabeleland, an area that has a very sentimental and emotional connection with Zapu. While Zanu PF lost Matabeleland long back, except for one or two pockets here-and-there, and the MDC-T can afford to lose Matabeleland and remain strong in Masvingo and Harare for instance, the MDC-M has nowhere to go if it loses Matabeleland. Regrettably, Ncube sounds very determined to meet his doomsday.

The leadership of the MDC (M) has to look at their situation more objectively and do what is best for themselves and their members and supporters, if they still have any. Ncube, Nyathi, Misihairambwi-Mushonga, and generally the rest of the MDC leadership are good people. I at times wonder if they were meant to be politicians. Zimbabwe’s politics demands that one be like Mugabe or Tsvangirai, and do things the Highlanders Football Club way, “ngenkani” (by any means necessary), or simply the Dynamos Football Club way, de referee (read ZEC or Tobaiwa Mudede), or both.

The MDC leadership decided in 2008 that they would rather lose the elections than be called tribalists; they clung to the name MDC in order to prove that they were principled and that they were the original MDC. On the other hand, Tsvangirai would rather call his faction by his own surname. What if the MDC had taken our “strategy” and branded themselves as a regional party? Certainly they would have done better than they did in Matabeleland, and Ncube or the late Gibson Sibanda would have been the third principals in the Global Political Agreement.

In the end, it was Mutambara and not Sibanda or Ncube, despite the fact that no significant number of people from Mutambara’s region voted for the MDC. It was the people of Nkayi, Tsholotsho, Lupane, Bulilima, Gwanda, and to some extent, Bulawayo who gave the MDC their only seats. Have you ever imagined Zanu PF and the MDC-T having a president from Matabeleland? Just how? What for?

The manouvres by Tsvangirai’s MDC to destroy the other MDC through snatching their MPs and senators soon after the 2008 polls, and recent attempts to manufacture wholesale defections in rural district councils of Nkayi, Lupane and Bulilima is testimony that Tsvangirai and his gang are not finished with MDC (M). The defection of former MPs, namely, Abednico Bhebhe (Nkayi South), Norman Mpofu and Njabuliso Mguni, demonstrated how fragile and vulnerable the MDC was. There is therefore need for decisive and firm leadership action from the MDC.

In my view, the MDC has to decide whether to go back to Tsvangirai and become perpetual underdogs; or join my party, Zapu; or even Zanu PF. It is obvious there is determination in the MDC by some of its leaders to continue carrying the cross. While this may appear brave, it may be very catastrophic in 2011 when the party is exterminated at the polls.

The Zapu option looks very attractive and viable because they would be joining, a “new” and friendly force where there are no incumbent MPs and senators, and it would be easier to accommodate new arrivals. My daily prayer is that Ncube does not fall into the Zanu PF and MDC-T trap of trying to entice him to stake his future again and that of his followers by trying to maintain a semblance of a party, with the aim of trying to be an “internal opposition” for Zapu. The MDC has already lost the battle of who is the real MDC against MDC-T, and has no chance of winning the battle of who is Zapu.

Paul Siwela and Agrippa Madlela, who have gone as far as the Supreme Court claiming they have their own Zapu, can testify how impossible it is to destabilise our Zapu. If there are any in the MDC leadership who want to come home to Zapu, they better do it early to avoid last minute decisions which may appear to be driven by desperation, and leave them with no bargaining power.

One thing I have found fascinating about Ncube’s bid for the MDC presidency is the manner in which it has been generously covered by the state media, particularly the Chronicle. Contrast that to the manner the same newspaper tried to suffocate the Zapu Congress, held a stone-throw from its offices. The Chronicle only covered Zapu and Dabengwa when “rebels” expressed dreams of “ousting” Dabengwa, or when Zapu members “axed each other”. There was no mention of the congress, until when Madlela and Siwela sprang an eleventh hour High Court action meant to derail our congress, or to take away the limelight from it, none of which was achieved. Where are Cdes Siwela and Madlela?

The question we must ask is why would the state media promote Ncube’s ascendancy to the presidency of the MDC? In my view and experience as a journalist, it is clear the Zanu PF propaganda department imagines that Ncube would rival Dabengwa in Matabeleland so as to divide the vote and give a chance to Zanu PF and the MDC-T to re-establish political hegemony. Will this succeed? As the Ndebele would say, khona sizake sibone! (We shall see).

If the next elections are held under the first-past-the-post constituency based system, the MDC has zero chances of getting any seat. If it is by proportional representation, the MDC may be (I stress may be) can do a “General Bantu Holomisa” and get one seat for its president. I will give the MDC one of my bulls to slaughter for its victory celebrations party if it performed better than it did in 2008. I am serious.

Bhebhe, Mguni, Mpofu and misguided councilors in Bulawayo and Nkayi who have “rejoined” Tsvangirai must prepare themselves for the humiliation of their lives come next elections. It was no accident that constituents in their areas chose MDC at the expense of MDC-T and other competitors, as much as it was not an accident that people elsewhere chose MDC-T and Zanu PF. The three musketeers are all but sell-outs in the eyes of the people of Matabeleland. Selling out is selling out, whether to MDC-Tsvangirai or to Zanu PF.

I urge the MDC leadership, and their former MPs and councilors who are being enticed to join Tsvangirai, not to continue carrying their own cross, like ex-Zapu leaders who continue to follow Zanu PF. They are simply carrying their own cross, on which they will be crucified by their own people in the not-so-distant future. My advice is please lay down the cross and go back home. Home is best.
Methuseli Moyo is the Director of Communication and Marketing in Zapu.

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(NEWZIMBABWE) Ndebele president: the secret fear

Ndebele president: the secret fear
by Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga
09/12/2010 00:00:00

THE tragedy is that socialisation is not only limited to a particular sphere of one’s life. Whilst some of us have spent the better part of our life declaring and professing our ultra-feminism, we sadly remain stuck in a particular paradigm.

It is that paradigm that sustains injustice and abuse in every sphere of life, it is a paradigm premised on the principle that playing the martyr in the face of abuse will convict and stop the abuse. Which explains why the majority of us women are constantly taught, if not trained, to continue to be “nice” to give sex, to cook, to try and be respectful and to be patient in the face of blatant abuse - “Silence is Golden” we are told.

Today, in a small way, I seek to challenge that paradigm, not because I believe that changing that paradigm will necessarily stop the abuse but I do it merely to name and shame and to refuse to be a sitting duck. I will put up a fight and most likely in doing so invite more abuse but that is a risk I am willing to take.

This article has been provoked by the discussions I have been part of, in particular in the so called civil society, of which, ironically, I am a product. It is as result of the newspaper articles I have read, particularly those from the so called “progressive” groups, the very ones that some of us spent night vigils at police stations in solidarity with colleagues that we believed had been unfairly arrested.

I have been shocked and dismayed at how the same individuals who yesterday preached honesty and the sanctity of treating people with dignity are themselves using the newly found “democratic” spaces to do exactly what they complained and marched against. I have watched how some of us have become worse enemies that those who supposedly traumatised them.

In amazement, I have listened to the same people wax hysterical on the illegitimacy of our being at the negotiating table to the extent that they now claim that the coalition government would have been more acceptable if the negotiations had been two-way: between Zanu PF and MDC T.

Insignificant as they claim we are, they also in the same vein hold us responsible for all that was lost at the table. Oblivious to the six signatures on the Kariba Draft, a falsehood is now fact that this was a Welshman Ncube and Patrick Chinamasa document. As I struggled with this paradox, I had a Damascene revelation, which explained this hatred, towards us. The revelation is that this is nothing but disguised tribalism.

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The MDC is a thorn in the flesh of Shona supremacists because both in its form and content, it challenges the basic notion that the only group of people with the legitimate right to decide on the fate of Zimbabwe are Shona’s. In fact both Zanu PF and MDC-T in its choice of negotiators had made that clear. Of the four negotiators, all were Shona, for MDC T they made this clear by ensuring that whilst they originally had deployed a Ndebele, Lovemore Moyo, as a negotiator, mid-stream he was unceremoniously replaced by a Shona, which in fact meant that outside Welshman Ncube, the crafters of the Global Political Agreement both at principals’ level and at the negotiators’ level would all have been Shona.
The Principle of Collusion

History has proven that there is always collusion between an ethnic group in any African conflict with white external capital forces. That collusion is always not based on values or ideology, but is driven purely by the need to access and control resources.

Conflicts in Rwanda, DRC and Kenya are testimony to this collusion. In Zimbabwe, that collusion started in the pre-colonial era, in particular during the Lancaster House negotiations when white capital forces’ self-interest meant that between a Ndebele leader and a Shona, they stood to benefit more by a transition from Ian Smith to a Shona leader. This is explained by the support that Mugabe received in spite of earlier demonization -- a terrorist became the darling of the West.

It is that collusion which explains the silence of the same white capital forces during the Gukurahundi era. Is it not surprising that given the arrests of many political activists during that era, with some of them dying in prison, there wasn’t a single draft UN Security Council Resolution against the ZANU regime?

Is it not equally surprising that Morgan Tsvangirai’s arrests have earned him a confetti of awards and yet my Google search shows not a single award to Joshua Nkomo? It is, therefore, clear that whilst white capital now has issues with Mugabe, primarily over access to resources, they now seek to facilitate a transition that fits within the same framework where power can only be handed over to a Shona leader.

The white capital self-interest is not threatened by a transition from Mugabe to Tsvangirai or Simba Makoni or Emerson Mnangagwa or Joice Mujuru. It is only threatened by a leader who, by the very fact that he comes from a minority grouping, may not in their opinion have the capacity to give them that access.

It is this ethnic /white capital agenda that explains the viciousness with which Arthur Mutambara’s entry into Zimbabwe politics was received. For all his real and perceived crimes, his greatest crime is that he sold his soul to a supposedly dying Ndebele-driven party. For that, he will not be forgiven.

It is the same basis and reason that explains the abuse meted at Welshman Ncube. The lies and machinations that you see and can’t explain are from a majoritarian group that believes that only their tribe can hold a place of fame in the intellectual world. That a mere Ndebele has challenged the supremacy of the Shona tribe in the legal field is Welshman’s first problem. His second sin is that having been given the rare privilege, as a Ndebele, for the first time in the history of this country, to be Secretary-General of a “national” political party, he proceeded to be ungrateful and sought to bite the hand that fed him.

For many years, in the proverbial attitude of a battered wife, he had humiliated himself at all public fora declaring that he understood that a person born of a minority tribe could and should never aspire to be President. However, it is questioning Tsvangirai’s democratic credential s that earned him the full wrath of both the Shona supremacists and white capital.

White capital’s anger towards him was driven by the fact that he threatened their well-planned and orchestrated transition. One now understands why white capital, during the split, came out in full support of Tsvangirai in spite of him having violated the principles and values they claim to stand for. It is that collusion that explains the mega resources deployed in Matabeleland in the guise of forming Human Rights Organisations. ‘Welshman and his Ndebele grouping’ had to be obliterated (refer to WikiLeaks-Christopher Dell’s Comments on Welshman Ncube) and they almost were. Interestingly, no such resources were ever given to that region at the height of the Gukurahundi era.

The current dynamics in the party prior to its congress have attracted such massive interest. One wonders why a party supposedly hit by so many defections, and whose relevance, it is claimed, is a few of its leadership holding-by-stealth public office, can generate such interest.

The ruptures and factions in our party, it is also claimed, have apparently reached such proportions that they have become subjects for diplomatic briefs, opinions pieces and civic conversations and yet parties like Mavambo that have had major ruptures are hardly subjects for debate.

Dare I say that all this can only be explained as a deep-seated secret fear that perhaps, just perhaps, one could wakeup with a Ndebele president.

As I said at the beginning of the article, naming and shaming may not stop the abuse but at least now when dirt is thrown at that ethnic group or at those that are seen to represent it, We, born in Ndebele wombs, can stand up and say: WE SAW, WE HEARD and WE SPOKE.
Priscilla Misihairabwi-Mushonga is the Deputy Secretary General of the MDC

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(NEWZIMBABWE, GUARDIAN UK) Mugabe coup

Mugabe coup
by David Smith I Guardian
09/12/2010 00:00:00

A BLOODLESS coup was planned to remove Robert Mugabe as Zimbabwe's president with the help of pressure from the UN secretary general, according to classified US documents.

A group of exiled Zimbabwean businessman proposed in 2007 that Mugabe could be persuaded to hand over executive power to a prime minister before leaving office completely three years later. American officials welcomed the idea, noting that it was "increasingly in circulation" in the capital, Harare, and "may not require outside intervention".

The plot came to nothing, although it does bear similarities to the power sharing deal that saw Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai become prime minister after violent elections in 2008.

A confidential memo from the US embassy in South Africa is entitled "Secret power sharing plan" and dated 30 January 2007. At the time Zimbabwe was plunging into an unprecedented economic crisis.

The cable names a group of prominent Zimbabwean businessmen living in South Africa who were pushing for change but says their leader's identity should be "strictly protected".

Executive power was to be shifted from Mugabe to a "technocratic" prime minister. "To get Mugabe to accept the deal, Mugabe would remain president until 2010 with some power over the security apparatus, but the prime minister would run the economy and get the country back on its feet," the dispatch says.

"All parties would work together to draft a new constitution. [The businessman] was open to ideas on who best to sell the plan, but suggested new UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon, working through an envoy like former Malaysian PM Mahathir, as possible mediators."

Mugabe would have retained the power to appoint the ministers of defence, home affairs and national security. The prime minister would have appointed other cabinet members, particularly in the economic arena. Deployment of troops would have required the approval of both the PM and president.

In return for various reforms the international community was to agree on a phased lifting of sanctions, the "acceptance" of the extension of Mugabe's term to 2010 and economic assistance to help rehabilitate the Zimbabwean economy. The prime minister would have needed the backing of 85% of parliament and therefore the support of the opposition MDC.

The US embassy said it could not comment on the merits of the plan but found it "encouraging" that senior Zimbabwean businessmen abroad were discussing solutions to the country's political and economic malaise.

"The four businessmen agreed that there is a 'window of opportunity' to bring positive change to Zimbabwe, opened by the deteriorating economic situation and Mugabe's advancing age and declining health."

Little detail was given on how Mugabe, a hero of the liberation struggle who came to power in 1980, could be persuaded to stand aside.

Moeletsi Mbeki, a South African businessman and brother of its then president, Thabo Mbeki, recommended against South Africa playing the mediation role, arguing instead for a combination such as Ban and Mahathir.

An additional note from the US embassy in Harare suggests the MDC endorsed the concept. It says Tsvangirai told embassy officials that "this is Mugabe's Plan B as he runs into growing resistance" and that the prime minister would be Simba Makoni, a former Mugabe ally turned rival.

"Significant outside intervention, therefore, may not be necessary; however, gentle encouragement from Pretoria is unlikely to be amiss. UN SYG [secretary general] Ban may not wish to engage on this issue at the beginning of his tenure, especially in view of the way Mugabe treated former UN SYG [Kofi] Annan.

"He fears for his future if he steps down – citing the Charles Taylor example [the former Liberian president now on trial for war crimes] – and perhaps even more importantly fears for the future of his wife and young children."

Another memo from the US embassy in Harare – with subheadings that include "How to get Mugabe out" – shows that a decade ago the MDC considered a "mass action" intended to force the president from office.

It details a breakfast meeting on 16 November 2000 between Tsvangirai and Susan Rice, then-president Bill Clinton's assistant secretary for African affairs.

"Mass action would be intended to pressure president Mugabe to resign," it says. "The MDC understands the serious risks associated with mass action, Tsvangirai professed, and recognises that it is in the country's best interest to avoid bloodshed."

Mass action would most likely have taken the form of a general strike that December, it adds. But brutal government retaliation was a genuine fear: "Tsvangirai believed the army wouldn't hesitate to shoot a lot of people.

"Tsvangirai was frank, confident and relaxed. However he did not convince us that the MDC has a clear or well thought out plan for mass action or what it would accomplish.

"Everyone is focused on seeing Mugabe go but it will probably take a convergence of opposition from Zanu-PF, the military and regional leaders to force him out."

The MDC leader was seeking foreign assistance with little success. "Tsvangirai mentioned that on his last visit to South Africa he met with former president [Nelson] Mandela – who still exerts great influence in South Africa, he stated – and urged the leader to intervene in Zimbabwe. He did not receive a firm commitment from Mandela, however, and did not see [Thabo] Mbeki.

"Tsvangirai said that when he was in the UK recently he told the British to refrain from making public statements on land reform in Zimbabwe and to use their influence behind the scenes to resolve the problem."

Even in 2000 Tsvangirai said that ideally the MDC would like to see a "transitional arrangement" over two years where Mugabe's Zanu-PF remained in power but brought in MDC ministers to arrest economic decline. Another eight years, with much bloodshed and hardship, were to pass before this became reality.

[Enough of the editorializing. This article does not even mention the economic sanctions that destroyed the Zimbabwean economy - ZDERA. - MrK]


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(STICKY ) (ZIMPAPERS) More leaks from WikiLeaks on Zimbabwe!

COMMENT - US Ambassador Charles Ray admits to the existence of economic sanctions against Zimbabwe - calls them 'non-personal sanctions'. The economic sanctions that are in place against Zimbabwe and that have been inforce since December 21st, 2001, when they destroyed the economy in 2002 (2 years after the start of landreform) are a matter of record. And yet, the US sanctimoniously speaks of 'targeted sanctions', and 'individual restrictions', when the entire government was put on an international credit freeze. It is this credit freeze that caused hyperinflation of the Zimbabwe Dollar, and we all know the economic damage that flows from that. This must be exposed and acknowledged. An apology to the Zimbabwean people and President Mugabe is in order, as well as compensation. (Read ZDERA Section 4C titled Multilateral Finance Restriction here.)

More leaks from WikiLeaks on Zimbabwe!
Thursday, 09 December 2010 20:57 Top Stories

MDC-T leader Mr Morgan Tsvangirai contrived to publicly call for the lifting of the widely-discredited sanctions while privately urging the West to maintain them, according US classified cables released by the whistle-blowing WikiLeaks website.
A December 24, 2009 cable titled "Tsvangirai asks the West for help on changing the status quo" sent to Washington by US Ambassador to Zimbabwe Mr Charles Ray, reveals that Mr Tsvangirai indicated he would employ the double-speak tactic to gain concessions from Zanu-PF.

He also told the US government that he was considering giving something to President Mugabe to give to Zanu PF "hardliners," to soften them. The cable shows that Mr Tsvangirai felt frustrated by Zanu PF hardliners in his attempt at regime change.

"It appears he (President Mugabe) is being managed by hardliners. Tsvangirai said his goal now is to find a way to manage Mugabe himself. One way, perhaps, would be to give him something to give his hardliners. Precisely what that something is, he said, is something he is still wrestling with," wrote Ambassador Ray.

The cable from Mr Ray clearly reveals Mr Tsvangirai’s double standards regarding the removal of illegal sanctions imposed on the country by Western countries.
Ambassador Ray said Mr Tsvangirai called for flexibility on the part of Western Governments on the issue of sanctions since Zanu-PF was insisting on reciprocity in the interparty negotiations.

"Tsvangirai said that it seems that Mugabe plans to use the governors as a tradeoff against sanctions. He said he has repeatedly told Mugabe that MDC has no control over sanctions. But, he added lack of any flexibility on the issue of sanctions poses a problem for him and his party.

"In this, he assured us that Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara is in full agreement with him. He also acknowledged that his public statements calling for the easing of sanctions versus his private conversations saying they must be kept caused problems," reads part of the cable.

In this regard, Mr Tsvangirai is said to have called for the partial lifting of sanctions — "without giving the impression that we are rewarding lack of progress or bad behaviour."

"If necessary," Ambassador Ray reported Mr Tsvangirai as saying, "He (Tsvangirai) and Mutambara can quietly meet with Western leadership to develop a plan on the issue of sanctions."

The two had allegedly "decided to take the issue of sanctions out of the hands of negotiators and handle it personally" — taking the "diplomatic lead" on the issue.
This would entail a Western-approved roadmap for the easing of sanctions linked to "identifiable and quantifiable progress."

Mr Tsvangirai reportedly sought to present this to President Mugabe after the interparty negotiators had delivered their final report on January 15, 2010.
On the other hand, the cable revealed, Mr Tsvangirai had said that his "goal now was to find a way to ‘manage’ (President) Mugabe himself."

In his comment, the diplomat said "it might be in the USG’s (United States Government) interest to consider some form of incremental easing of non-personal sanctions, provided we see actual implementation of some of these reforms."


Oh, so economic sanctions against Zimbabwe are called 'non-personal sanctions', Charles Ray, you lying hypocrite.

Charles Ray, lying hypocrite, stated previously: “When leaders named on the U.S. sanctions list tell you that these limited and largely symbolic measures destroyed Zimbabwe's economy, what they are really doing is pretending they are not responsible for a disastrous decade. They are saying, ‘I am not the one. I am not responsible!’,” he said during a public lecture at Chinhoyi University of Technology.


He requested guidance from his government on the conditions of easing sanctions and other "possible moves."

"We also request guidance on what to tell (PM) Tsvangirai at our next meeting, which is expected early in the New Year," wrote Ambassador Ray.

WikiLeaks also leaked a confidential memo from the US embassy in South Africa, entitled "Exiled Zimbabwean businessmen float Zimbabwe power-sharing idea".

In the dispatch, a group of unnamed businessmen in 2007 intimated that, with the help of former Malaysian Prime Minister Mohamad Mahathir or United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon, President Mugabe could be persuaded to hand over executive power to a "technocratic Prime Minister" before leaving office in 2010.

Another one, from Ambassador Ray dated February 10 2010, featured an unnamed Zanu-PF member intimating that MDC-T was alienating its supporters because of corruption and that sanctions were hurting the economy.

The latest leaks of US cables on Zimbabwe are said to be part of around 3 000 secret communication that has been shuttled between the two countries as the US tries to effect illegal regime change in Zimbabwe.

Last week, WikiLeaks released cables that revealed Ame-rica’s low opinion of the leaders of both MDC formations with Mr Tsvangirai being described as requiring "massive hand holding" should he ever come to power.

PM Tsvangirai was described as a "flawed figure", "indecisive" and of questionable judgment in selecting those around him and without executive ability.
Prof Mutambara was called a political "lightweight" attra-cted to anti-Western rhetoric, while Professor Welshman Ncube was said to be a "deeply divisive" person.

PM Tsvangirai has said he is not bothered by what is contained in the cables.

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